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Cake day: June 9th, 2023

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  • Do you think there’s any reason to believe that these tools are going to continue their breakneck progress? It seems like we’ve reached a point where throwing more GPUs and text at these things is not yielding more results, and they still don’t have the problem solving skills to work out tasks outside of their training set. It’s closer to a StackOverflow that magically has the answers to most questions you ask than a replacement for proper software engineering. I know you never know if a breakthrough is around the corner, but it feels like we’ve hit a plateau for the foreseeable future.


  • It’s very good for navigating and editing text quickly, and fantastic for situations like “I need to do the same thing 100 times” with things like macros. Coders are frequently opening a big, complex file, jumping around it a lot, changing big and small parts of it, and doing repetitive tasks. For something more like writing out thoughts for an email, editing them slightly, then being done with that text forever, there aren’t as many advantages, you’re spending most of your time in “insert” mode which is effectively “normal text editor that people are used to” mode. That said, it’s one of those things where when you do get used to it and start to enjoy it instead of being frustrated by how different it is, you start wanting it wherever you have to type anything.





  • The doom and gloom predictions have always been about slow but inexorable changes in the climate. Not that suddenly a mega hurricane is going to rip Florida out of the ground and toss it into the ocean, but that weather is going to get worse and more extreme, that sea levels will rise, and more and more places will gradually become uninhabitable as conditions get worse. There won’t be single things that you can point to and say “that one was global warming”, it’s about trends that are harmful for us in the long term. If you eat a chocolate bar’s worth more calories than you burn every day, it sounds like doom and gloom to say you’ll gain 200 pounds if you don’t change anything, and you won’t be able to point to any one meal as something to be concerned about because that’s not really out of the ordinary for a day… but slowly and steadily, you’ll gain weight, and if nothing changes you will get there eventually.

    And even though you aren’t owed dramatic destruction, and shouldn’t require it to believe the thousands of people who study this as their life’s work and all agree that things are dire and not getting better fast enough… you’ve literally just lived through the hottest twenty or so days in recorded history. Is that a coincidence, do you think?